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The Future of AI

Systems, Data Science, Biology, Medicine

Neil D. Lawrence

Autumn Data Science School, Cambridge

What is Machine Learning?

\[ \text{data} + \text{model} \xrightarrow{\text{compute}} \text{prediction}\]

  • data : observations, could be actively or passively acquired (meta-data).
  • model : assumptions, based on previous experience (other data! transfer learning etc), or beliefs about the regularities of the universe. Inductive bias.
  • prediction : an action to be taken or a categorization or a quality score.

What is Machine Learning?

\[\text{data} + \text{model} \xrightarrow{\text{compute}} \text{prediction}\]

  • To combine data with a model need:
  • a prediction function \(\mappingFunction (\cdot)\) includes our beliefs about the regularities of the universe
  • an objective function \(\errorFunction (\cdot)\) defines the cost of misprediction.

Machine Learning

  • Driver of two different domains:
    1. Data Science: arises from the fact that we now capture data by happenstance.
    2. Artificial Intelligence: emulation of human behaviour.
  • Connection: Internet of Things

Machine Learning

  • Driver of two different domains:
    1. Data Science: arises from the fact that we now capture data by happenstance.
    2. Artificial Intelligence: emulation of human behaviour.
  • Connection: Internet of Things

Machine Learning

  • Driver of two different domains:
    1. Data Science: arises from the fact that we now capture data by happenstance.
    2. Artificial Intelligence: emulation of human behaviour.
  • Connection: Internet of People

Convention for the Protection of Individuals with regard to Automatic Processing of Personal Data (1981/1/28)

What does Machine Learning do?

  • ML Automates through Data
    • Strongly related to statistics.
    • Field underpins revolution in data science and AI
  • With AI:
    • logic, robotics, computer vision, speech
  • With Data Science:
    • databases, data mining, statistics, visualization

Supply Chain

Cromford

Deep Freeze

Deep Freeze

Machine Learning in Supply Chain

  • Supply chain: Large Automated Decision Making Network
  • Major Challenge:
    • We have a mechanistic understanding of supply chain.
    • Machine learning is a data driven technology.

DeepFace

Outline of the DeepFace architecture. A front-end of a single convolution-pooling-convolution filtering on the rectified input, followed by three locally-connected layers and two fully-connected layers. Color illustrates feature maps produced at each layer. The net includes more than 120 million parameters, where more than 95% come from the local and fully connected.

Source: DeepFace (Taigman et al., 2014)

Deep Learning as Pinball

Olympic Marathon Data

  • Gold medal times for Olympic Marathon since 1896.
  • Marathons before 1924 didn’t have a standardised distance.
  • Present results using pace per km.
  • In 1904 Marathon was badly organised leading to very slow times.
Image from Wikimedia Commons http://bit.ly/16kMKHQ

Olympic Marathon Data

Alan Turing

Probability Winning Olympics?

  • He was a formidable Marathon runner.
  • In 1946 he ran a time 2 hours 46 minutes.
    • That’s a pace of 3.95 min/km.
  • What is the probability he would have won an Olympics if one had been held in 1946?

Olympic Marathon Data GP

Deep GP Fit

  • Can a Deep Gaussian process help?

  • Deep GP is one GP feeding into another.

Olympic Marathon Data Deep GP

Olympic Marathon Data Deep GP

Olympic Marathon Data Latent 1

Olympic Marathon Data Latent 2

Olympic Marathon Pinball Plot

Step Function Data

GPy: A Gaussian Process Framework in Python

https://github.com/SheffieldML/GPy

GPy: A Gaussian Process Framework in Python

  • BSD Licensed software base.
  • Wide availability of libraries, ‘modern’ scripting language.
  • Allows us to set projects to undergraduates in Comp Sci that use GPs.
  • Available through GitHub https://github.com/SheffieldML/GPy
  • Reproducible Research with Jupyter Notebook.

Features

  • Probabilistic-style programming (specify the model, not the algorithm).
  • Non-Gaussian likelihoods.
  • Multivariate outputs.
  • Dimensionality reduction.
  • Approximations for large data sets.

Step Function Data GP

Step Function Data Deep GP

Step Function Data Deep GP

Step Function Data Latent 1

Step Function Data Latent 2

Step Function Data Latent 3

Step Function Data Latent 4

Step Function Pinball Plot

Della Gatta Gene Data

  • Given given expression levels in the form of a time series from Della Gatta et al. (2008).

Della Gatta Gene Data

Gene Expression Example

  • Want to detect if a gene is expressed or not, fit a GP to each gene Kalaitzis and Lawrence (2011).

http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2105/12/180

TP53 Gene Data GP

TP53 Gene Data GP

TP53 Gene Data GP

Multiple Optima

Della Gatta Gene Data Deep GP

Della Gatta Gene Data Deep GP

Della Gatta Gene Data Latent 1

Della Gatta Gene Data Latent 2

TP53 Gene Pinball Plot

Deploying Artificial Intelligence

  • Challenges in deploying AI.
  • Currently this is in the form of “machine learning systems”

Internet of People

  • Fog computing: barrier between cloud and device blurring.
    • Computing on the Edge
  • Complex feedback between algorithm and implementation

Deploying ML in Real World: Machine Learning Systems Design

  • Major new challenge for systems designers.
  • Internet of Intelligence but currently:
    • AI systems are fragile

Example: Prediction of Malaria Incidence in Uganda

  • Work with Ricardo Andrade Pacheco, John Quinn and Martin Mubaganzi (Makerere University, Uganda)
  • See AI-DEV Group.

Malaria Prediction in Uganda

(Andrade-Pacheco et al., 2014; Mubangizi et al., 2014)

Kapchorwa District

Tororo District

Malaria Prediction in Nagongera (Sentinel Site)

Mubende District

Malaria Prediction in Uganda

GP School at Makerere

Kabarole District

Early Warning System

Early Warning Systems

Deep Health

Conclusion

  • The Cell is a Micro Supply Chain.
    • Analyzing cell data has a lot in common with analyzing supply chain data.
    • In Biology you are fortunate to have many cells (destructive testing).
  • In Supply Chain we find it easier to deploy modificiations for the system.
    • Downstream effects are complex and need monitoring.
    • Life is really good at dealing with evolving environments … our designs not so much.

Thanks!

References

Andrade-Pacheco, R., Mubangizi, M., Quinn, J., Lawrence, N.D., 2014. Consistent mapping of government malaria records across a changing territory delimitation. Malaria Journal 13. https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-13-S1-P5

Della Gatta, G., Bansal, M., Ambesi-Impiombato, A., Antonini, D., Missero, C., Bernardo, D. di, 2008. Direct targets of the trp63 transcription factor revealed by a combination of gene expression profiling and reverse engineering. Genome Research 18, 939–948. https://doi.org/10.1101/gr.073601.107

Kalaitzis, A.A., Lawrence, N.D., 2011. A simple approach to ranking differentially expressed gene expression time courses through Gaussian process regression. BMC Bioinformatics 12. https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2105-12-180

Mubangizi, M., Andrade-Pacheco, R., Smith, M.T., Quinn, J., Lawrence, N.D., 2014. Malaria surveillance with multiple data sources using Gaussian process models, in: 1st International Conference on the Use of Mobile ICT in Africa.

Taigman, Y., Yang, M., Ranzato, M., Wolf, L., 2014. DeepFace: Closing the gap to human-level performance in face verification, in: Proceedings of the IEEE Computer Society Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition. https://doi.org/10.1109/CVPR.2014.220