AutoAI: Systems, Machine Learning and Mathematics

The Great AI Fallacy

Intellectual Debt

FIT Models to FIT Systems

• Focus in machine learning has been on FAcT learning.
• Fairness, accountability and Transparency in individual models.
• But individual models aren’t the problem.
• Fariness, interpetability and transparency required for whole system.

Buying System

Monolithic System

Service Oriented Architecture

Buying …

… to Banking

Statistical Emulation

Emulation

Emulation

Emulation

Emulation

Emulation

Deep Emulation

Deep Emulation

Deep Emulation

Deep Emulation

Mathematically

• Composite multivariate function \[ \mathbf{g}(\mathbf{ x})=\mathbf{ f}_5(\mathbf{ f}_4(\mathbf{ f}_3(\mathbf{ f}_2(\mathbf{ f}_1(\mathbf{ x}))))). \]

Equivalent to Markov Chain

• Composite multivariate function \[ p(\mathbf{ y}|\mathbf{ x})= p(\mathbf{ y}|\mathbf{ f}_5)p(\mathbf{ f}_5|\mathbf{ f}_4)p(\mathbf{ f}_4|\mathbf{ f}_3)p(\mathbf{ f}_3|\mathbf{ f}_2)p(\mathbf{ f}_2|\mathbf{ f}_1)p(\mathbf{ f}_1|\mathbf{ x}) \]

Step Function Data Latent 1

Step Function Data Latent 2

Step Function Data Latent 3

Step Function Data Latent 4

Operational Science

• Automate the process of explaining and maintaining ML Systems.
• Challenge is these systems are highly complex:
  • Flaws need rapid addressing.
• This becomes apparent in operational science

Pandemic

• Been working with the DELVE Group
• One perspective on challenge facing government:
  • Intellectual Debt for the whole country
  • Ideas about explaining a complex system much wider applicability.
• Implications for digital twins