Laplace’s Gremlin: Uncertainty and Artificial Intelligence

Neil D. Lawrence

Celsius Lecture, Uppsala University, Sweden

Philosophical Essay on Probabilities Laplace (1814) pg 3

\[ \text{data} + \text{model} \stackrel{\text{compute}}{\rightarrow} \text{prediction}\]

If we do discover a theory of everything … it would be the ultimate triumph of human reason-for then we would truly know the mind of God

Stephen Hawking in A Brief History of Time 1988
loneliness

overcrowding

birth

Glider (1969)

Loafer (2013)

Philosophical Essay on Probabilities Laplace (1814) pg 5

Lap Engine (1788)
total energy
=
available energy
+
temperature
\(\times\)
entropy

Betrand Russell
Albert Einstein
Norbert Wiener

James Clerk Maxwell
Ludwig Boltzmann
Josiah Willard Gibbs

Entropy:

Entropy:

Claude Shannon

bits/min billions 2,000
billion
calculations/s 		~100 a billion
embodiment 20 minutes 5 billion years

Outline of the DeepFace architecture. A front-end of a single convolution-pooling-convolution filtering on the rectified input, followed by three locally-connected layers and two fully-connected layers. Color illustrates feature maps produced at each layer. The net includes more than 120 million parameters, where more than 95% come from the local and fully connected.

Source: DeepFace (Taigman et al., 2014)

  • 2 June 1739
    • Carl Linnaeus (naturalist)
    • Jonas Alströmer (mercantilist)
    • Mårten Triewald (mechanical engineer)
    • Sten Carl Bielke (civil servants)
    • Carl Wilhelm Cederhielm (civil servant)
    • Anders Johan von Höpken (politician)

policy
datagovernance
acceleratescience
AutoAI

A chance for us to acknowledge our ignorance and to rediscover interdisplinary science.

One thing is I can live with is doubt, and uncertainty and not knowing. I think it’s much more interesting to live with not knowing than to have an answer that might be wrong.

Richard P. Feynmann in the The Pleasure of Finding Things Out 1981.

Einstein, A., 1905. Über die von der molekularkinetischen Theorie der Wärme geforderte Bewegung von in ruhenden Flüssigkeiten suspendierten Teilchen. Annalen der Physik 322, 549–560. https://doi.org/10.1002/andp.19053220806
Einstein, A., 1905. Über die von der molekularkinetischen Theorie der Wärme geforderte Bewegung von in ruhenden Flüssigkeiten suspendierten Teilchen. Annalen der Physik 322, 549–560. https://doi.org/10.1002/andp.19053220806
Heider, F., Simmel, M., 1944. An experimental study of apparent behavior. The American Journal of Psychology 57, 243–259.
Heider, F., Simmel, M., 1944. An experimental study of apparent behavior. The American Journal of Psychology 57, 243–259.
Laplace, P.S., 1814. Essai philosophique sur les probabilités, 2nd ed. Courcier, Paris.
Laplace, P.S., 1814. Essai philosophique sur les probabilités, 2nd ed. Courcier, Paris.
Seba, A., Tanjé, P., 1734. Thesaurus rerum naturalium. Apud J. Wetstenium & Gul. Smith, & Janssonio-Waesbergios.
Seba, A., Tanjé, P., 1734. Thesaurus rerum naturalium. Apud J. Wetstenium & Gul. Smith, & Janssonio-Waesbergios.
Taigman, Y., Yang, M., Ranzato, M., Wolf, L., 2014. DeepFace: Closing the gap to human-level performance in face verification, in: Proceedings of the IEEE Computer Society Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition. https://doi.org/10.1109/CVPR.2014.220
Taigman, Y., Yang, M., Ranzato, M., Wolf, L., 2014. DeepFace: Closing the gap to human-level performance in face verification, in: Proceedings of the IEEE Computer Society Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition. https://doi.org/10.1109/CVPR.2014.220