AI Cannot Replace the Atomic Human

Attempting to measure human capital poses a productivity paradox

Neil D. Lawrence

Le nuove frontiere dell’intelligenza artificiale e le prospettive per il prossimo triennio, Polo culturale del Ministero delle Imprese e del Made in Italy, Salone degli Arazzi, Roma

Artificial General Vehicle

Philosopher’s Stone

The Attention Economy

Herbert Simon on Information

What information consumes is rather obvious: it consumes the attention of its recipients. Hence a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention …

Simon (1971)

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Human Capital Index

  • World Bank Human Capital Index 2020
  • UK outperforms USA and China
  • Measures health and education

Productivity Flywheel

Inflation of Human Capital

  • Strength in Human Capital double-edged sword.
  • Automation creates efficiency.
  • But skills risk becoming redundant.

Inflation Proof Human Capital

  • Does automation totally displace the human?
  • Or is there an irreducible core?

Uncertainty Principle

  • Machines rely on measurable outputs
    • Quantified aspects of humans easier to automate
    • Essential aspects of humanity are the hardest to measure
  • Implies: atomic human is difficult to quantify

Homo Atomicus

  • Where we have homo economicus the machine can step in.
  • Quantitative vs Qualitative gap
  • Homo atomicus is …
    • Not in A-level results
    • Not in hospital waiting lists
    • In the quality of human interaction

New Productivity Paradox

  • Current productivity flywheel relies on measurement to translate innovation into productivity.
  • Without measurement how does the wheel spin?

From Language Models to Agents

  • LLMs → Agentic Systems
  • Challenge: Not just technical sophistication
  • Question: Whose problems do AI agents solve?
  • Risk: Optimizing for measurable metrics, missing real needs

Il Made in Italy e l’Intelligenza Artificiale

  • Industrial Districts: Human Networks
  • Design Excellence: Tacit Knowledge
  • Made in Italy: Cannot Be Automated
  • The Challenge: AI as Tool, Not Replacement

Supply Chain of Ideas

  • Ideas flow from creation to application like physical supply chains
  • Parallels with traditional economic supply chain management
  • Particularly relevant for IT and AI solutions

Supply Chain of Ideas

  • Current imbalance between supply and demand sides
    • Mismatch between macroeconomic interventions and microeconomic need
  • Over-Focus on solutionism
    • technologies/companies
  • Under-focus on real-world needs … disconnect between government and citizens … disconnect between companies and customers

Supply Chain of Ideas

  • Need to map idea problems demand to idea supply
  • Need to understand … problems (demand) … current “stock” of solutions (supply)
  • Requires active management of idea resources
  • Shape supply to meet demand

AI cannot replace atomic human

Attention Reinvestment Cycle

Technology Transfer: The Real Challenge

  • Competence Centers: Bridge Builders
  • Not Just Deployment: Capability Building
  • SME Needs ≠ Big Tech Solutions
  • Local Knowledge + Global Technology

Cromford

Distretti Industriali e Reti di Innovazione

  • 18th Century Emilia Romagna: Silk, Paper
  • 21st Century Challenge: AI + Human Networks
  • Strength in Community
  • Strength in Diversity
  • Strength in Europe
  • AI as Infrastructure, Not Replacement

The Next Three Years

  • Next 3 Years: Not Just Better Models
  • Build: Institutional Frameworks
  • Connect: AI to Real Business Needs
  • Preserve: What Makes Made in Italy Unique
  • Remember: AI Cannot Replace the Atomic Human

Example: Cambridge Approach

ai@cam

How ai@cam is Addressing Innovation Challenges

  • A-Ideas (across 20 departments)
  • Policy lab (with Bennett, Minderoo)
  • HPC Pioneer projects (with RCS, C2D3)
  • Accelerate programme (Schmidt Sciences funded)

Innovation Economy Conclusion

  • Interact directly with micro-demand
  • Release quality attention
  • Reinvest human capital in more innovation

Thanks!

References

Lawrence, N.D., 2024. The atomic human: Understanding ourselves in the age of AI. Allen Lane.
Simon, H.A., 1971. Designing organizations for an information-rich world. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD.