AI Cannot Replace the Atomic Human

Attempting to measure human capital poses a productivity paradox

Neil D. Lawrence

Le nuove frontiere dell’intelligenza artificiale e le prospettive per il prossimo triennio, Polo culturale del Ministero delle Imprese e del Made in Italy, Salone degli Arazzi, Roma

Artificial General Vehicle

Communication Bandwidth

  • Human communication: walking pace (2000 bits/minute)
  • Machine communication: light speed (billions of bits/second)
  • Our sharing walks, machine sharing …

Philosopher’s Stone

The Attention Economy

Herbert Simon on Information

What information consumes is rather obvious: it consumes the attention of its recipients. Hence a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention …

Simon (1971)

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Human Capital Index

  • World Bank Human Capital Index 2020
  • Measures health and education

  • UK 0.78 11th globally
  • Italy 0.73 30th globally
  • US 0.70 35th globally
  • China 0.65 45th globally

Problem for Italy

  • Structural human capital deficit
  • More exported than imported
  • Contrast: US and UK have surplus

From Language Models to Agents

  • LLMs → Agentic Systems
  • Challenge: Not just technical sophistication
  • Question: Whose problems do AI agents solve?
  • Risk: Optimising for measurable metrics, missing real needs

Il Made in Italy e l’Intelligenza Artificiale

  • Industrial Districts: Human Networks
  • Design Excellence: Tacit Knowledge
  • Made in Italy: Cannot Be Automated
  • The Challenge: AI as Tool, Not Replacement

Technology Transfer: The Real Challenge

  • Competence Centers: Bridge Builders
  • Not Just Deployment: Capability Building
  • SME Needs ≠ Big Tech Solutions
  • Local Knowledge + Global Technology

Distretti Industriali e Reti di Innovazione

  • 18th Century Emilia Romagna: Silk, Paper
  • 21st Century Challenge: AI + Human Networks
    • Strength in Community
    • Strength in Diversity
    • Strength in Europe
  • AI as Infrastructure, Not Replacement

The Next Three Years

  • Next 3 Years: Not Just Better Models
  • Build: Institutional Frameworks
  • Connect: AI to Real Business Needs
  • Preserve: What Makes Made in Italy Unique
  • Remember: AI Cannot Replace the Atomic Human

Micro not Macro Economic

  • Macro (regulation, central coordination) can hinder/help
  • But core problem is micro: firm adoption, capability gaps, market incentives
  • Top-down policy alone cannot solve the adoption challenge

Thanks!

References

Lawrence, N.D., 2024. The atomic human: Understanding ourselves in the age of AI. Allen Lane.
Simon, H.A., 1971. Designing organizations for an information-rich world. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD.