at Council on Ethics, The Norwegian Government Pension Fund on Nov 11, 2019 [reveal]
Neil D. Lawrence, University of Cambridge

#### Abstract

In this talk we give an introduction to what artificial intelligence technologies are doing today and how they are influencing business and society.

# What is Machine Learning? 

What is machine learning? At its most basic level machine learning is a combination of

$$\text{data} + \text{model} \xrightarrow{\text{compute}} \text{prediction}$$

where data is our observations. They can be actively or passively acquired (meta-data). The model contains our assumptions, based on previous experience. That experience can be other data, it can come from transfer learning, or it can merely be our beliefs about the regularities of the universe. In humans our models include our inductive biases. The prediction is an action to be taken or a categorization or a quality score. The reason that machine learning has become a mainstay of artificial intelligence is the importance of predictions in artificial intelligence. The data and the model are combined through computation.

In practice we normally perform machine learning using two functions. To combine data with a model we typically make use of:

a prediction function a function which is used to make the predictions. It includes our beliefs about the regularities of the universe, our assumptions about how the world works, e.g. smoothness, spatial similarities, temporal similarities.

an objective function a function which defines the cost of misprediction. Typically it includes knowledge about the world’s generating processes (probabilistic objectives) or the costs we pay for mispredictions (empiricial risk minimization).

The combination of data and model through the prediction function and the objectie function leads to a learning algorithm. The class of prediction functions and objective functions we can make use of is restricted by the algorithms they lead to. If the prediction function or the objective function are too complex, then it can be difficult to find an appropriate learning algorithm. Much of the acdemic field of machine learning is the quest for new learning algorithms that allow us to bring different types of models and data together.

A useful reference for state of the art in machine learning is the UK Royal Society Report, Machine Learning: Power and Promise of Computers that Learn by Example.

You can also check my post blog post on What is Machine Learning?..

## Artificial Intelligence and Data Science 

Machine learning technologies have been the driver of two related, but distinct disciplines. The first is data science. Data science is an emerging field that arises from the fact that we now collect so much data by happenstance, rather than by experimental design. Classical statistics is the science of drawing conclusions from data, and to do so statistical experiments are carefully designed. In the modern era we collect so much data that there’s a desire to draw inferences directly from the data.

As well as machine learning, the field of data science draws from statistics, cloud computing, data storage (e.g. streaming data), visualization and data mining.

In contrast, artificial intelligence technologies typically focus on emulating some form of human behaviour, such as understanding an image, or some speech, or translating text from one form to another. The recent advances in artifcial intelligence have come from machine learning providing the automation. But in contrast to data science, in artifcial intelligence the data is normally collected with the specific task in mind. In this sense it has strong relations to classical statistics.

Classically artificial intelligence worried more about logic and planning and focussed less on data driven decision making. Modern machine learning owes more to the field of Cybernetics (Wiener 1948) than artificial intelligence. Related fields include robotics, speech recognition, language understanding and computer vision.

There are strong overlaps between the fields, the wide availability of data by happenstance makes it easier to collect data for designing AI systems. These relations are coming through wide availability of sensing technologies that are interconnected by celluar networks, WiFi and the internet. This phenomenon is sometimes known as the Internet of Things, but this feels like a dangerous misnomer. We must never forget that we are interconnecting people, not things.

Convention for the Protection of Individuals with regard to Automatic Processing of Personal Data (1981/1/28)

## What does Machine Learning do? 

Any process of automation allows us to scale what we do by codifying a process in some way that makes it efficient and repeatable. Machine learning automates by emulating human (or other actions) found in data. Machine learning codifies in the form of a mathematical function that is learnt by a computer. If we can create these mathematical functions in ways in which they can interconnect, then we can also build systems.

Machine learning works through codifing a prediction of interest into a mathematical function. For example, we can try and predict the probability that a customer wants to by a jersey given knowledge of their age, and the latitude where they live. The technique known as logistic regression estimates the odds that someone will by a jumper as a linear weighted sum of the features of interest.

$$\text{odds} = \frac{p(\text{bought})}{p(\text{not bought})}$$

log odds = β0 + β1age + β2latitude.
Here β0, β1 and β2 are the parameters of the model. If β1 and β2 are both positive, then the log-odds that someone will buy a jumper increase with increasing latitude and age, so the further north you are and the older you are the more likely you are to buy a jumper. The parameter β0 is an offset parameter, and gives the log-odds of buying a jumper at zero age and on the equator. It is likely to be negative1 indicating that the purchase is odds-against. This is actually a classical statistical model, and models like logistic regression are widely used to estimate probabilities from ad-click prediction to risk of disease.

This is called a generalized linear model, we can also think of it as estimating the probability of a purchase as a nonlinear function of the features (age, lattitude) and the parameters (the β values). The function is known as the sigmoid or logistic function, thus the name logistic regression.

$$p(\text{bought}) = \sigmoid{\beta_0 + \beta_1 \text{age} + \beta_2 \text{latitude}}.$$
In the case where we have features to help us predict, we sometimes denote such features as a vector, $\inputVector$, and we then use an inner product between the features and the parameters, $\boldsymbol{\beta}^\top \inputVector = \beta_1 \inputScalar_1 + \beta_2 \inputScalar_2 + \beta_3 \inputScalar_3 ...$, to represent the argument of the sigmoid.

$$p(\text{bought}) = \sigmoid{\boldsymbol{\beta}^\top \inputVector}.$$
More generally, we aim to predict some aspect of our data, $\dataScalar$, by relating it through a mathematical function, $\mappingFunction(\cdot)$, to the parameters, β and the data, $\inputVector$.

$$\dataScalar = \mappingFunction\left(\inputVector, \boldsymbol{\beta}\right).$$
We call $\mappingFunction(\cdot)$ the prediction function.

To obtain the fit to data, we use a separate function called the objective function that gives us a mathematical representation of the difference between our predictions and the real data.

$$\errorFunction(\boldsymbol{\beta}, \dataMatrix, \inputMatrix)$$
A commonly used examples (for example in a regression problem) is least squares,
$$\errorFunction(\boldsymbol{\beta}, \dataMatrix, \inputMatrix) = \sum_{i=1}^\numData \left(\dataScalar_i - \mappingFunction(\inputVector_i, \boldsymbol{\beta})\right)^2.$$

If a linear prediction function is combined with the least squares objective function then that gives us a classical linear regression, another classical statistical model. Statistics often focusses on linear models because it makes interpretation of the model easier. Interpretation is key in statistics because the aim is normally to validate questions by analysis of data. Machine learning has typically focussed more on the prediction function itself and worried less about the interpretation of parameters, which are normally denoted by w instead of β. As a result non-linear functions are explored more often as they tend to improve quality of predictions but at the expense of interpretability.

# Deep Learning 

Classical statistical models and simple machine learning models have a great deal in common. The main difference between the fields is philosophical. Machine learning practitioners are typically more concerned with the quality of prediciton (e.g. measured by ROC curve) while statisticians tend to focus more on the interpretability of the model and the validity of any decisions drawn from that interpretation. For example, a statistical model may be used to validate whether a large scale intervention (such as the mass provision of mosquito nets) has had a long term effect on disease (such as malaria). In this case one of the covariates is likely to be the provision level of nets in a particular region. The response variable would be the rate of malaria disease in the region. The parmaeter, β1 associated with that covariate will demonstrate a positive or negative effect which would be validated in answering the question. The focus in statistics would be less on the accuracy of the response variable and more on the validity of the interpretation of the effect variable, β1.

A machine learning practitioner on the other hand would typically denote the parameter w1, instead of β1 and would only be interested in the output of the prediction function, $\mappingFunction(\cdot)$ rather than the parameter itself. The general formalism of the prediction function allows for non-linear models. In machine learning, the emphasis on prediction over interpretability means that non-linear models are often used. The parameters, w, are a means to an end (good prediction) rather than an end in themselves (interpretable).

### DeepFace 

The DeepFace architecture (Taigman et al. 2014) consists of layers that deal with translation and rotational invariances. These layers are followed by three locally-connected layers and two fully-connected layers. Color illustrates feature maps produced at each layer. The neural network includes more than 120 million parameters, where more than 95% come from the local and fully connected layers.

### Deep Learning as Pinball 

Sometimes deep learning models are described as being like the brain, or too complex to understand, but one analogy I find useful to help the gist of these models is to think of them as being similar to early pin ball machines.

In a deep neural network, we input a number (or numbers), whereas in pinball, we input a ball.

Think of the location of the ball on the left-right axis as a single number. Our simple pinball machine can only take one number at a time. As the ball falls through the machine, each layer of pins can be thought of as a different layer of ‘neurons’. Each layer acts to move the ball from left to right.

In a pinball machine, when the ball gets to the bottom it might fall into a hole defining a score, in a neural network, that is equivalent to the decision: a classification of the input object.

An image has more than one number associated with it, so it is like playing pinball in a hyper-space.

import pods
from ipywidgets import IntSlider
pods.notebook.display_plots('pinball{sample:0>3}.svg',
'../slides/diagrams',
sample=IntSlider(1, 1, 2, 1))

Learning involves moving all the pins to be in the correct position, so that the ball ends up in the right place when it’s fallen through the machine. But moving all these pins in hyperspace can be difficult.

In a hyper-space you have to put a lot of data through the machine for to explore the positions of all the pins. Even when you feed many millions of data points through the machine, there are likely to be regions in the hyper-space where no ball has passed. When future test data passes through the machine in a new route unusual things can happen.

Adversarial examples exploit this high dimensional space. If you have access to the pinball machine, you can use gradient methods to find a position for the ball in the hyper space where the image looks like one thing, but will be classified as another.

Probabilistic methods explore more of the space by considering a range of possible paths for the ball through the machine. This helps to make them more data efficient and gives some robustness to adversarial examples.

## Embodiment Factors 

Let me explain what I mean. Claude Shannon introduced a mathematical concept of information for the purposes of understanding telephone exchanges.

Information has many meanings, but mathematically, Shannon defined a bit of information to be the amount of information you get from tossing a coin.

If I toss a coin, and look at it, I know the answer. You don’t. But if I now tell you the answer I communicate to you 1 bit of information. Shannon defined this as the fundamental unit of information.

If I toss the coin twice, and tell you the result of both tosses, I give you two bits of information. Information is additive.

Shannon also estimated the average information associated with the English language. He estimated that the average information in any word is 12 bits, equivalent to twelve coin tosses.

So every two minutes Bauby was able to communicate 12 bits, or six bits per minute.

This is the information transfer rate he was limited to, the rate at which he could communicate.

Compare this to me, talking now. The average speaker for TEDX speaks around 160 words per minute. That’s 320 times faster than Bauby or around a 2000 bits per minute. 2000 coin tosses per minute.

But, just think how much thought Bauby was putting into every sentence. Imagine how carefully chosen each of his words was. Because he was communication constrained he could put more thought into each of his words. Into thinking about his audience.

So, his intelligence became locked in. He thinks as fast as any of us, but can communicate slower. Like the tree falling in the woods with no one there to hear it, his intelligence is embedded inside him.

Two thousand coin tosses per minute sounds pretty impressive, but this talk is not just about us, it’s about our computers, and the type of intelligence we are creating within them.

So how does two thousand compare to our digital companions? When computers talk to each other, they do so with billions of coin tosses per minute.

Let’s imagine for a moment, that instead of talking about communication of information, we are actually talking about money. Bauby would have 6 dollars. I would have 2000 dollars, and my computer has billions of dollars.

The internet has interconnected computers and equipped them with extremely high transfer rates.

However, by our very best estimates, computers actually think slower than us.

How can that be? You might ask, computers calculate much faster than me. That’s true, but underlying your conscious thoughts there are a lot of calculations going on.

Each thought involves many thousands, millions or billions of calculations. How many exactly, we don’t know yet, because we don’t know how the brain turns calculations into thoughts.

Our best estimates suggest that to simulate your brain a computer would have to be as large as the UK Met Office machine here in Exeter. That’s a 250 million pound machine, the fastest in the UK. It can do 16 billion billon calculations per second.

It simulates the weather across the word every day, that’s how much power we think we need to simulate our brains.

So, in terms of our computational power we are extraordinary, but in terms of our ability to explain ourselves, just like Bauby, we are locked in.

For a typical computer, to communicate everything it computes in one second, it would only take it a couple of minutes. For us to do the same would take 15 billion years.

If intelligence is fundamentally about processing and sharing of information. This gives us a fundamental constraint on human intelligence that dictates its nature.

I call this ratio between the time it takes to compute something, and the time it takes to say it, the embodiment factor (Lawrence 2017a). Because it reflects how embodied our cognition is.

If it takes you two minutes to say the thing you have thought in a second, then you are a computer. If it takes you 15 billion years, then you are a human.

## Challenges when AI Meets the Real World 

In practice there are serious challenges when AI meets the real world. Firstly, the AI represents an intelligence that is not embodied in the way we expect and reasons in a way that we don’t understand. That effects how we assimilate AI within the cognitive landscape. There is a power asymmetry where companies that control our data make individually inconsequential decisions about us based on this data, but accumulated these decisions have a consequential effect. Yet we have no practical say in how those decisions are being made. We will review that challenge with data trusts below.

First we consider the challenge of designing and deploying large scale machine learning solutions.

## Turing AI Fellowship 

From December 2019 I begin a Senior AI Fellowship at the Turing Institute funded by the Office for AI to investigate the consequences of deploying complex AI systems.

The notion relates from the “Promise of AI”: it promises to be the first generation of automation technology that will adapt to us, rather than us adapting to it. The premise of the project is that this promise will remain unfulfilled with current approaches to systems design and deployment.

## Project Description

It used to be true that computers only did what we programmed them to do, but today AI systems are learning from our data. This introduces new problems in how these systems respond to their environment.

We need to better monitor how data is influencing decision making and take corrective action as required.

## Aim

Our aim is to scale our ability to deploy safe and reliable AI solutions. Our technical approach is to do this through data-oriented software engineering practices and deep system emulation. We will do this through a significant extension of the notion of Automated ML (AutoML) to Automated AI (AutoAI), this relies on a shift from Bayesian Optimisation to Bayesian System Optimisation. The project will develop a toolkit for automating the deployment, maintenance and monitoring of artificial intelligence systems.

## SafeBoda 

SafeBoda is a Kampala based rider allocation system for Boda Boda drivers. Boda boda are motorcycle taxis which give employment to, often young men, across Kampala. Safe Boda is driven by the knowledge that road accidents are set to match HIV/AIDS as the highest cause of death in low/middle income families by 2030.

With road accidents set to match HIV/AIDS as the highest cause of death in low/middle income countries by 2030, SafeBoda’s aim is to modernise informal transportation and ensure safe access to mobility.

SafeBoda and other projects like Kudu provide us with our motivating examples. Our aim is to create an ecosystem for machine learing system deployment that minimises the operational load. Ideally, we would like complex AI systems to be maintainable by a small team, e.g. two people, with Masters-level education from the institutions that host Data Science Africa (e.g. Ashesi University, Makerere University, Dedan Kimathi University of Technology, AUST, AIST, Addis Ababa).

As of 24th October 2019, the Turing Institute announced that this work has been funded through a Turing Institute Senior AI Fellowship. This is the first Senior AI fellowship and it provides funding for five years.

The project partners are Element AI, Open ML, Professor Sylvie Delacroix and Data Science Africa.

## Inclusive Project

There is no way that the team we’re building will be able to deliver on this agenda alone, so please join us in addressing these challenges!

# Data Trusts 

The machine learning solutions we are dependent on to drive automated decision making are dependent on data. But with regard to personal data there are important issues of privacy. Data sharing brings benefits, but also exposes our digital selves. From the use of social media data for targeted advertising to influence us, to the use of genetic data to identify criminals, or natural family members. Control of our virtual selves maps on to control of our actual selves.

The fuedal system that is implied by current data protection legislation has signficant power asymmetries at its heart, in that the data controller has a duty of care over the data subject, but the data subject may only discover failings in that duty of care when it’s too late. Data controllers also may have conflicting motivations, and often their primary motivation is not towards the data-subject, but that is a consideration in their wider agenda.

Data Trusts (Edwards 2004; Lawrence 2016; Delacroix and Lawrence 2018) are a potential solution to this problem. Inspired by land societies that formed in the 19th century to bring democratic representation to the growing middle classes. A land society was a mutual organisation where resources were pooled for the common good.

A Data Trust would be a legal entity where the trustees responsibility was entirely to the members of the trust. So the motivation of the data-controllers is aligned only with the data-subjects. How data is handled would be subject to the terms under which the trust was convened. The success of an individual trust would be contingent on it satisfying its members with appropriate balancing of individual privacy with the benefits of data sharing.

Formation of Data Trusts became the number one recommendation of the Hall-Presenti report on AI, but the manner in which this is done will have a significant impact on their utility. It feels important to have a diversity of approaches, and yet it feels important that any individual trust would be large enough to be taken seriously in representing the views of its members in wider negotiations.

See Guardian articles on Guardian article on Digital Oligarchies and Guardian article on Information Feudalism.

In conclusion we consider five AI myths. Seemingly commonly accepted ideas that aren’t true about our AI futures.

## Five AI Myths 

1. AI will be the first wave of automation that adapts to us.
2. Hearsay data has significant value.
3. The big tech companies have the landscape all ‘sewn up’
4. ‘data scientists’ will come and solve all problems.
5. The normal rules of business don’t apply to AI.

The five AI myths are patterns of thinking I’ve identified amoung those that are trying to take advantage of artificial intelligence to deploy new products.

The first myth is the “promise of AI” myth, that AI will be the first wave of machine-based automation that adapts to us, rather than us having to adapt to it. The reality is that we haven’t yet created machines that are as flexible as humans, the automation we are producing is still ‘fragile’, in that if it encounters unforeseen circumstances it breaks. This is a consequence of the way we design systems, flexible natural systems such as ourselves are evolved, not designed. And evolved systems have a first priority to ‘not fail’. What we think of us ‘common sense’ in the human is in reality a set of heuristics that prevent us doing stupid things in the name of achieving a goal. Our AI systems don’t exhibit this.

The second myth is that there is value in ‘hearsay data’. Hearsay data is data that people have heard exists, so they say it exists (See this blog onblog post on Data Readiness Levels. (Lawrence 2017b). The failure to understand the importance of data quality is resulting in unrealistic projects staffed by people with the wrong skill sets. Most decision makers don’t understand that implementation of a machine learning model is relatively trivial. But preparation of the data set and the data ecosystem around the model is extremely difficult. So the wrong investments are made, millions spent on recruiting machine learning PhDs and minimal spend on data infrastructure and systems for data auditing.

The third myth is that platform effects mean that there is no room for knew innovation in AI. Three factors will prevent the platforms dominating in the long term. Firstly, they are not agile, their approach to AI software development is grounded in the world that pre-dates wide availability of machine learning systems. Agile software development needs revisiting in the context of machine learning and this form of cultural change is difficult to achieve. In practice, these companies are larger than they need to be to deliver their services because they can afford to employ people to handle operational load. Newer agile companies will develop a better culture around data and machine learning. One that requires less operational overhead. This doesn’t just reduce costs, but it increases speed of movement and develops better understanding of the underlying systems. See this blog on blog post on The 3Ds of Machine Learning Systems Design..

The fourth myth is that soon there will be a wave of Data Scientists who will be equipped to enter companies and resolve their problems around data and AI. The mistake here is to assume that these graduates will have been trained in the necessary skills to do data science within a company. In fact, Universities will naturally focus on algorithms and models, because that material is teachable. Much more important is systems thinking and data wrangling. Processes to ensure that data is actionable. The weakness of senior decision makers, including CIOs and CTOs is that they don’t have a deep understanding of the technology, so they don’t perform critical thinking in this space. It’s a problem that can be deferred and solved by a mythical set of experts who will soon be arriving. In reality, domain expertise is key to successful data science, and bridging existing expertise with an understanding of the new landscape is far more important to delivering succesful systems.

The final myth is perhaps the most perniscious. It involves a suspension of normal business skepticism where AI is concerned. It may arise from the use of the term AI, which implies intelligence. If these systems were really ‘intelligent’, in the way a human is intelligent, plus if they had the skills of a computer, that really would be revolutionary. However, that’s not what’s happening, and won’t happen in the foreseeable future (i.e. on timelines that matter to business). In reality this is an evolution of existing technology, and it has the ususual challenges of adpotion that existing technologies have. The challenge for decision makers is how to assimilate the implications of this new technology within their business skill set. This means familiarisation, and doing courses etc isn’t good enough. Senior business leaders need to take time out working closely with the technology in their own environments to better calibrate their understanding of its strengths and weaknesses.

Recommendation: How to bust to these myths? The primary recommendation for businesses is that they start pilot projects which have executive sponsorship. They involve the CTO (or CIO or CDO), a technical ‘data science’ expert and a target domain area. Instead of feigning knowledge in this space, each admits their own ignorance of the other domains, and starts from scratch. Egos are left out of the room. The small pilot project is explored and delivered with the real challenges being noted. In this way each of the individuals will learn quickly where the pitfalls are.

One challenge is that for most projects the data will be too poor to even conduct the pilot. However, one data source that is consistently of good quality across companies is financial data. So a further suggestion is to initially focus on collaborating with the CFO and focus on financial forecasting (or similar). If the CFO, CTO and CEO gain a better understanding of the capabilities of data science, then the company can begin to turn around its systems and culture focussing on the important changes, making calibrated changes, rather than reacting to the sensationalism around AI.

Importantly, don’t go all in. Major companies are susceptible to what I call ‘(Grand Old) Duke of York Effect’, march 10,000 people to the top of the hill and march them down again. Command and control is not the right response to an uncertain and environment. Don’t think like regular troops, think like special forces, small groups with specialist expertise that are empowered to think independently and explore the landscape. Find which hill to march up, before committing significant resource.

# References

Delacroix, Sylvie, and Neil D. Lawrence. 2018. “Disturbing the ‘One Size Fits All’ Approach to Data Governance: Bottom-up Data Trusts.” SSRN. https://doi.org/10.1093/idpl/ipz01410.2139/ssrn.3265315.

Edwards, Lilian. 2004. “The Problem with Privacy.” International Review of Law Computers & Technology 18 (3): 263–94.

Lawrence, Neil D. 2016. “Data Trusts Could Allay Our Privacy Fears.” The Guardian Media & Tech Network. https://www.theguardian.com/media-network/2016/jun/03/data-trusts-privacy-fears-feudalism-democracy.

———. 2017a. “Living Together: Mind and Machine Intelligence.” arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.07996.

———. 2017b. “Data Readiness Levels.” arXiv.

Taigman, Yaniv, Ming Yang, Marc’Aurelio Ranzato, and Lior Wolf. 2014. “DeepFace: Closing the Gap to Human-Level Performance in Face Verification.” In Proceedings of the IEEE Computer Society Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition. https://doi.org/10.1109/CVPR.2014.220.

Wiener, Norbert. 1948. Cybernetics: Control and Communication in the Animal and the Machine. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

1. The logarithm of a number less than one is negative, for a number greater than one the logarithm is positive. So if odds are greater than evens (odds-on) the log-odds are positive, if the odds are less than evens (odds-against) the log-odds will be negative.